UNRAVELING THE GLOBAL FABRIC: HOW TRUMP’S TREATY WITHDRAWALS AND FOREIGN POLICY COULD FUEL NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION

Author: Xavier A. Fox, Associate Editor

Introduction

In the years following Donald Trump’s first presidency, and now following his reascendance to the White House, the world has witnessed a troubling resurgence in the discussion surrounding nuclear proliferation. Nations that once trusted the strength of established international arms control frameworks are reconsidering their security strategies, with some openly debating the acquisition of nuclear weapons.[i] This shift largely began with the Trump administration’s departure from key international agreements supporting global non-proliferation.[ii]

The administration’s decision to withdraw from several key nuclear treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (“INF”) Treaty and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”), signaled a broader retreat from the rules-based international order.[iii] The legal and diplomatic consequences of these withdrawals have already destabilized arms control efforts and undermined global security,[iv] and they will continue to do so well into the future.

Trump's Key Treaty Withdrawals

Signed in 1987 by the United States and the Soviet Union, the INF Treaty aimed to eliminate an entire class of nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers.[v] In 2019, the Trump administration formally withdrew from the INF Treaty, citing Russian violations as the primary justification.[vi] While Russia’s alleged noncompliance was a legitimate concern, the U.S. exit removed key constraints on missile development, increasing the risk of an arms race in Europe and Asia.[vii]

The JCPOA was brokered in 2015 by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council  and Germany to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.[viii] Despite Iran’s verified compliance by the International Atomic Energy Agency, President Trump withdrew from the deal in May 2018, calling it “the worst deal ever.”[ix] Following the U.S. withdrawal and reimposition of sanctions, Iran resumed several nuclear activities previously prohibited under the agreement.[x]

The U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty during George W. Bush’s presidency in 2002, which set an important precedent for U.S. abandonment of arms control treaties.[xi] Trump’s actions expand on this precedent, reinforcing the perception that the U.S. is willing to unilaterally abandon legally binding international agreements whenever a new administration sees fit, with little regard to its effects on the concerns of smaller countries, including their national security.[xii]

Consequences of Withdrawals on Nuclear Proliferation

Trump’s dismantling of key arms control agreements has accelerated a new global arms race.[xiii] The end of the INF Treaty opened the door for both the U.S. and Russia to develop and deploy new missile systems without legal restrictions, while China has also expanded its missile arsenal and production in response.[xiv]

The collapse of the JCPOA led to Iran enriching uranium beyond the deal’s limits and installing advanced nuclear enrichment centrifuges.[xv] That in turn has significantly reduced Iran’s breakout time to develop a nuclear weapon, further increasing tensions in the Middle East.[xvi] The escalation in tension has prompted calls for military intervention and threats of military escalation by Israel, a close U.S. ally.[xvii] Even more concerning, Trump himself is threatening Iran with a “bombing[,] the likes of which they have never seen before” should they not make a new nuclear deal.[xviii] However, it is unclear how a new nuclear deal with Iran would be materially different than the JCPOA he withdrew from. Additionally, it is difficult to see how Iran can be assured that the U.S. will uphold any agreements after the long-negotiated JCPOA was so unceremoniously disregarded within just a few years after its completion when Trump’s administration entered the White House.

In light of the escalating rhetoric between Israel and Iran, recent tit-for-tat strikes, and direct threats from Trump himself, the possibility of another major war in the Middle East seems increasingly real.[xix] This risk is heightened by the likelihood that Israel feels emboldened by a highly supportive administration in the White House.[xx]

Perhaps most concerning is the shift among U.S. allies. Trump’s repeated criticisms of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (“NATO”) and threats to withdraw U.S. support have shaken European confidence in America’s broader security commitments, including its nuclear deterrent.[xxi] As a result, nations like Poland and Germany are actively engaged in discussions about acquiring their own nuclear weapons to ensure their future security.[xxii] For example, Poland’s Prime Minister recently told Parliament that the government is actively considering gaining access to nuclear weapons along with its major arms buildup.[xxiii] Even staunch U.S. allies, South Korea and Japan, are reportedly considering obtaining their own nuclear weapons in light of the recent shift in the U.S. security strategy.[xxiv] Japan’s shift is arguably the most surprising when considering the fact that they are the only nation in the world to feel the direct wrath of a nuclear holocaust. This shows just how seriously U.S. allies are taking this threat to their existing security strategies.

Legal and International Ramifications

The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawals have weakened the international norm of pacta sunt servanda—a foundational principle of international law meaning “agreements must be honored”—which underpins the legitimacy and stability of all treaty obligations.[xxv] This has encouraged other countries to question the durability of international commitments and, in some cases, consider withdrawing from arms control agreements themselves.[xxvi]

By eroding trust in American leadership, Trump’s policies have weakened traditional alliances. NATO’s cohesion has suffered, with European states starting to move toward greater strategic autonomy.[xxvii] The global nuclear non-proliferation regime depends on unified and credible enforcement by major powers, a condition that Trump’s foreign policy has fundamentally undermined.[xxviii] Currently, the global risk of nuclear conflict is at its highest since the Cold War.[xxix] Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and China’s aggressive posturing over Taiwan further strain the already fragile arms control environment.[xxx]

While Trump has recently expressed a desire to begin denuclearization talks with Russia and China it is doubtful that this would ever result in full denuclearization of any of these countries.[xxxi] Given the renewed threat of conventional military invasions after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it is also doubtful that merely reducing the number of weapons possessed by the major powers would provide much assurance to smaller nations who are now seeking nuclear weapons for their own security.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s abandonment of critical arms control treaties has significantly destabilized the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. His administration’s disregard for international legal commitments has weakened U.S. alliances and emboldened nuclear aspirants. If the global community hopes to reverse this dangerous trend, it must prioritize restoring legal frameworks and recommit to multilateral arms control initiatives. Without renewed and committed diplomatic efforts by the key nuclear powers, the global arms control regime may continue to unravel.

[i] Malcom Moore, Andrew England & Ben Hall, Global Race for Nuclear Weapons at Record High, Warns UN, FIN. TIMES (Aug. 26, 2024), https://www.ft.com/content/2776c235-592a-44fd-a0cd-e61f69c308bf; Gideon Rose, Get Ready for the Next Nuclear Age: How Trump Might Drive Proliferation, FOREIGN AFFS. (Mar. 8, 2025), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/nuclear-age-proliferation-trump-nato-gideon-rose.

[ii] Id.

[iii] Ellen Loanes, How the Second Trump Presidency Could Reshape the World, VOX (Nov. 6, 2024), https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/382679/trump-foreign-policy-america-first-tariffs-nato-alliance.

[iv] Joshua Keating, The World Has Entered the Third Nuclear Age, VOX (Feb. 5, 2025), https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/392807/nuclear-risk-weapons-arms-race.

[v] Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, U.S.-U.S.S.R., Dec. 8, 1987, S. TREATY DOC. No. 100-11 (1988), 27 I.L.M. 90.

[vi] David E. Sanger & William J. Broad, U.S. to Tell Russia It Is Leaving Landmark I.N.F. Treaty, N.Y. TIMES (Oct. 19, 2018), https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/us/politics/trump-russia-nuclear-arms-treaty.html.

[vii] Moore, England & Hall, supra note i.

[viii] Kali Robinson, What Is the Iran Nuclear Deal?, COUNCIL ON FOREIGN REL. (Oct. 27, 2023), https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal.

[ix] Mark Landler, Trump Abandons Iran Nuclear Deal He Long Scorned, N.Y. TIMES (May 8, 2018), https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html.

[x] Parisa Hafezi & John Irish, Iran, Europeans Test Diplomacy with Trump Term Looming, REUTERS (Nov. 29, 2024), https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-europeans-test-diplomacy-with-trump-term-looming-2024-11-29/.

[xi] U.S. Withdrawal From the ABM Treaty: President Bush’s Remarks and U.S. Diplomatic Notes, ARMS CONTROL TODAY (Jan. 2002), https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002-01/us-withdrawal-abm-treaty-president-bushs-remarks-and-us-diplomatic-notes.

[xii] Kalina Gibson, The Trump Administration's Retreat From Global Climate Leadership, CTR. FOR AM. PROGRESS (Jan. 21, 2025), https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-trump-administrations-retreat-from-global-climate-leadership/; Mireya Solis, Trump Withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, BROOKINGS INST. (Jan. 23, 2017), https://www.brookings.edu/articles/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/.

[xiii] Rose, supra note i.

[xiv] Andrey Baklitskiy, What the End of the INF Treaty Means for China, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INT’L PEACE (Dec. 2, 2019), https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2019/11/what-the-end-of-the-inf-treaty-means-for-china?lang=en.

[xv] JCPOA Five Years Later: Iran's Escalations, IRAN PRIMER (May 3, 2023), https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2023/may/03/jcpoa-five-years-later-irans-escalations; See also Kelsey Davenport, Iran Accelerates Highly Enriched Uranium Production, ARMS CONTROL TODAY (Jan./Feb. 2024), https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-02/news/iran-accelerates-highly-enriched-uranium-production.

[xvi] Id.

[xvii] John Hudson, Michael Birnbaum & Ellen Nakashima, Israel Likely to Strike Iran in Coming Months Warns U.S. Intelligence, WASH. POST (Feb. 12, 2025), https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/12/israel-iran-us-intelligence/.

[xviii] Doina Chiacu & David Ljunggren, Trump Threatens Bombing if Iran Does Not Make Nuclear Deal, REUTERS (Mar. 30, 2025), https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-there-will-be-bombing-if-iran-does-not-make-nuclear-deal-2025-03-30/.

[xix] Annika Ganzeveld, The Consequences of the IDF Strikes into Iran, INST. FOR THE STUDY OF WAR (Nov. 12, 2024), https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/consequences-idf-strikes-iran.

[xx] Liam Stack, Trump Has History of Strong Support for Israel, N.Y. TIMES (Nov. 6, 2024), https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/world/middleeast/trump-israel-support.html.

[xxi] W.J. Hennigan, America’s Allies are Shaken and Now They’re Taking Action, N.Y. TIMES (Mar. 12, 2025), https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/12/opinion/nuclear-umbrella-us-allies.html.

[xxii] Nina Werkhäuser, Germany Debates Issue of Nuclear Weapons, DEUTSCHE WELLE (Mar. 15, 2025), https://www.dw.com/en/germany-debates-issue-of-nuclear-weapons/a-71924424.

[xxiii] Jan Cienski & Wojciech Kość, Poland Seeks Access to Nuclear Arms and Looks to Build Half-Million-Man Army, POLITICO (Mar. 7, 2025), https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-tusk-plan-train-poland-men-military-service-russia/.

[xxiv] Charles Clover et al., From Berlin to Tokyo, the Fears of a New Nuclear Arms Race, FIN. TIMES (Mar. 23, 2025), https://www.ft.com/content/1a7c9b17-862d-4986-ac09-42de2dee44f2.

[xxv] Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, May 23, 1969, 1155 U.N.T.S. 331.

[xxvi] Loanes, supra note iii.

[xxvii] Max Bergmann, Why It's Time to Reconsider a European Army, CTR. FOR STARTEGIC & INT’L STUD. (Feb. 28, 2025), https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-its-time-reconsider-european-army.

[xxviii] Moore, supra note i.

[xxix] Id.

[xxx] 2024 US Presidential Election: Global Reactions and Questions Following Trump's Victory, LE MONDE (Nov. 6, 2024), https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/11/06/2024-us-presidential-election-global-reactions-and-questions-following-trump-s-victory_6731840_4.html.

[xxxi] Zeke Miller & Michelle L. Price, Trump Wants Denuclearization Talks with Russia and China, AP NEWS (Feb. 14, 2025), https://apnews.com/article/trump-china-russia-nuclear-bbc1c75920297f1e5ba5556d084da4de.